In this series we’re looking at how the economics of sports is doing away with hunches and intuition. Using data and research to evaluate players, strategies and even leagues.
If you look closely at your favourite sport nowadays, it’s hard to miss the influence of economics. It’s evident from the way players are drafted or how much they are paid, through to individual coaching decisions, and even strategic shifts across entire leagues.
This has been particularly driven by the rise of game theory in economics. Game theory uses mathematical models to figure out optimal strategies, such as what pitches a baseball pitcher should throw, or whether American Football teams should pass more.
Sport lends itself to economics and game theory because players, coaches and agents act similar to the hypothetical rational decision-makers in economic models.
The economics of professional sport
If you’ve seen or read Moneyball you’ll understand how economics can be used to put together a team. This is the true story of Billy Beane, the former general manager of the Oakland Athletics baseball team. Beane became famous for using economic ideas to identify undervalued players.
Baseball scouts and agents often focused too much on unimportant factors like how hard someone could hit a ball. Using advanced statistics Billy Beane could identify players who were undervalued by his competitors, and play them in ways that made best use of their strengths.
In basketball, Robert D. Tollison is largely behind the explosion of three point shooting in the National Basketball Association. Tollison’s research identified that even though three pointers are less accurate than other shots, over the course of a game and season it makes sense to take more three pointers.
In some cases economists have been hired to solve specific problems. For instance the AFL was worried about clubs “tanking”…